Happy Holidays
This graph from the Financial Times is pretty shocking as far as charts go. The value of Apple, a single company, now surpasses the entirety of listed energy companies in the United... Continue reading
Complacency Rising
Volatility, represented by the white line, has been low and steady for some time. This is in stark contrast to the fourth quarter of last year when talks of a recession were gaining... Continue reading
Another Debt Chart
We are sure you have seen some version of the attached chart over the past several years. We are going to feed it to you again but highlight an interesting trend. The debt service... Continue reading
A Dubious Record
It tends to be a bad omen when that light blue line gets a bit too high. There are lots of great companies that entered their life as a public company that weren’t profitable, with... Continue reading
Active vs. Passive
This chart shows the decline of excess returns from active managers over the past decade and a half. We think there are a few interesting insights here: The best managers are still... Continue reading
Risky Borrowing is Making a Comeback
As the title suggests, leveraged loans (one of the riskiest types of corporate debt) have made a comeback. Today, more than 85% of them are defined as “covenant-lite”... Continue reading
ESG In Vogue
The area of Socially Responsible Investing has unfortunately become home to more marketers than investors. It is becoming increasingly difficult to parse through a complex landscape and... Continue reading
We’ve Been Here Before
We thought it would be important to highlight this chart given how many tech startups have gone public in 2019. This past year, 81% of companies in the US lost money leading... Continue reading
Indexing On The Rise
According to Morningstar Inc., passive U.S. equity funds are set to overtake their active peers in 2019. While we are believers in passive mandates, particularly for broad equity... Continue reading
If History Is Any Guide
Annualized returns over the last 10 years have been on par with some of the most profitable investment periods over the last 100 plus years. If history is any guide, returns... Continue reading
Manic Markets
After an unnerving December, markets were off to their best start in 30 years, a trend that continued through February to leave markets near their highs. We tend to ignore day to day... Continue reading
Valuation and Expected Returns
There are a tremendous number of variables that can influence returns over any 10-year period. That said, where you start from a valuation perspective is among the most... Continue reading
Best Wishes for the New Year!
Confronting the Market Setback Bryon Wien, one of our favourite market commentators, recently penned a thoughtful note to investors. In his most recent musing, Byron... Continue reading
The Return of Risk Management
For many, October was a month to forget. The harsh sell-off in both stocks and bonds certainly tested investors’ resolve and for the second time this year, saw a fundamental... Continue reading
Cash…or lack thereof
Cash as a percentage of a client’s portfolio has reached record lows not seen before at Charles Schwab over the last 25 years. While no chart on its own tells a full story, we... Continue reading
Markets Diverging…
Most portfolios in Canada would show little cause for concern year to date. Fixed income and Canadian equities may be relatively flat, but strong U.S. markets are making up for ... Continue reading
Expectations Rising...
Our friend David Rosenberg recently highlighted the spread between US households’ views on “current conditions” and “future expectations” – needless to say, everyone thinks ... Continue reading
Fintech’s Growing Share
Fintech firms now account for one–third of all personal loans in the US – a significant increase from 1% eight years ago. Advanced AI models, superior insights, and a deeper... Continue reading
The Big Cannabis Short
Over the last several months, an increasing number of investors have been betting that stock prices in the Cannabis sector will correct – in June, the total value of the short... Continue reading
The Retail Apocalypse
Businesses have always gone in and out of style but the sheer volume of highly recognizable retail brands that have gone bankrupt recently is somewhat shocking. A combination... Continue reading
Rising Debt Costs
Corporations in the US have taken on a meaningful amount of debt in recent years. Today, the amount outstanding as a percent of GDP is back to levels last seen during the previous... Continue reading
Employment Watch
There are lots of variables to watch when it comes to assessing the probability of a recession – changes in employment levels being one of the most reliable. In each case since World... Continue reading
The Return of Volatility
Early in 2018, the dividend yield of the S&P 500 crossed the two-year U.S. Treasury Yield. The implications of this could be significant for the perfectly (read: highly) priced... Continue reading
A Look Back In Time
A more technical, but less bearish, chart than we have shown over the last few months. The shape of the US Yield Curve (think long term interest rates relative to short term rates)... Continue reading