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WHAT GOES UP
We found this chart particularly interesting as it likely defies most people’s intuition on what has driven the market higher in recent years. Only 14% of returns over the last decade+ are driven by multiple expansion (basically, stocks getting more expensive).
This percentage was dramatically higher as recently as last year, but the recent fall in stocks combined with strong earnings growth have helped bring the figure back to earth. This doesn’t mean stocks are now magically cheap—in fact they are still relatively expensive—but it does put into perspective the reduction in potential downside. This runs counter to the almost-universal doom and gloom coming from media outlets lately.
What's in Store for Empty Downtown Office Buildings?
Long leases in the office market have made the office transition a very slow-moving process. At this point, some cities in the U.S. are now experiencing >20% vacancies in their office markets. Recent trends are unlikely to reverse, so the obvious question is what to do with all that space?
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Startup = Growth
We aren’t running out of ideas, just resurfacing the classics. In this 2012 piece, Paul Graham is kind enough to define a startup to a degree most people probably haven’t seen.
A startup is committing to solve a harder type of problem than ordinary businesses do. You're committing to search for one of the rare ideas that generates rapid growth. Because these ideas are so valuable, finding one is hard. The startup is the embodiment of your discoveries so far. Starting a startup is thus very much like deciding to be a research scientist: you're not committing to solve any specific problem; you don't know for sure which problems are soluble; but you're committing to try to discover something no one knew before. A startup founder is in effect an economic research scientist. Most don't discover anything that remarkable, but some discover relativity.
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How People Think
A truly worthwhile read from Morgan Housel. A description of human thought patterns and common misconceptions that also happens to be filled with some entertaining anecdotes. A few quotes:
There are limits to our sanity. Optimism and pessimism always overshoot because the only way to know the boundaries of either is to go a little bit past them.
We are pushed toward maximizing efficiency in a way that leaves no room for error, despite room for error being the most important factor of long-term success.
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Brookfield Billionaire Flatt Reveals Secret Behind 3,700% Return
Canada’s asset management giant makes an appearance on the David Rubenstein show. Few Canadians likely appreciate the actual scale of Brookfield and this is a great watch if you have some spare time. David keeps it interesting as always.
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