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Stocks Only go Up...
OK, maybe not. At this point the euphoria does make it seem that is the case some days. The two charts above show some metrics we regularly check in on. The first shows the percentage of stocks trading at EV/Sales greater than 20x. For those who dislike finance jargon, the rough translation equates to stocks that are very expensive. The second, the volume of trading in penny stocks, is an indicator for the amount of speculation in the market.
We have always said there is no way to predict a market decline, and no one indicator tells the full story, but we cannot help but feel like people should be paying a bit closer attention to what is a potentially historic moment in investing. Caveat emptor.
This is incredible. We owe a debt to a client for sending this our way. It illustrates extremely well how difficult it truly is to time the market.
We did terribly on our first attempt, and that is despite having a pretty good idea what the ending charts ultimately look like.
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Bill Gates enhanced his already significant credibility in 2020 by being one of the few people to predict that a meaningful pandemic would occur.
One can’t help but feel compelled to listen when he talks about the other pressing global threat currently on the horizon as a result. This wired piece is a great summary, but here is a YouTube video for those that prefer to consume their content via audio.
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A classic piece from Sam Altman. If you haven’t read this before, please do.
Exercise. Eat well. Sleep. Get out into nature with some regularity.
Work very hard—a surprising number of people will be offended that you choose to work hard—but not so hard that the rest of your life passes you by.
Whether or not money can buy happiness, it can buy freedom, and that’s a big deal.
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There are some great quotes on management in this piece from Forbes:
When I was a younger man, I was more tolerant; I always thought I could coach people to a place where they would be great,” Slootman says. “And 99 times out of 100, you’re wrong on that, which is the reason I [now] pull triggers much faster. I still don’t think I’ve ever taken anybody out of a job too soon. It’s [always] been too late.
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The letter isn’t available at the time of writing, but it will be online when this hits your inbox on Saturday. Hopefully you find a few gems in the latest musings from Mr. Buffet.
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