Employment Watch
There are lots of variables to watch when it comes to assessing the probability of a recession – changes in employment levels being one of the most reliable. In each case since World War II, when there was a small (1/3 of a percent) move upward in unemployment, a recession ensued. As you can see from the chart above, we are still running strong when it comes to U.S. employment but are nonetheless watching closely for potential inflections. As Mark Twain said, ‘history doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes’.
In the last eight years, Amazon has moved from being the 98th most valuable company to the 2nd. With sizeable operations in what feels like every conceivable category, it’s not surprising that Amazon would be mentioned more than 10% in all U.S. earnings conference calls last year.
At 180x current earnings, there is debate across the investment community as to what the future may hold for the company. For the bears, they argue that ‘few tech companies manage to stay this dominant for long, and Amazon can’t sneak up on anyone anymore’. For the bulls, it’s still early innings in terms of runway. In either case we think Amazon is a business worth paying attention to.
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One of our team members, Evan Sequeira, spoke to Johann Koss – four-time Olympic Gold Medalist, Founder of Right To Play and President of Waratah Impact recently. Johann was an incredible guest for our inaugural podcast and think that you’ll enjoy the conversation. The team will be releasing these podcasts on a regular basis (the third episode is already out) so feel free to subscribe if you enjoy them.
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As many of you know, the price of a Bitcoin has more than halved since reaching a peak of $19,501.03 in mid-December 2017. Despite the sharp decline, ‘true believers’ seem to be as optimistic as ever in crypto’s almost limitless future. This is a great long-form read that highlight’s today’s market craze, the culture that crypto has created, and what might follow.
“Bubbles are melancholy things—swirls of lies and optimism used to hide a million unrealized yearnings. Bitcoin will crash because of course it will. Bubbles burst. The real estate and athletics management people go home, and the believers remain, meeting up, planning new markets. It could take years, it could take a decade, but the blockchain freaks have a world in their heads, and they won’t rest until it’s real. That the rest of us live here, too, is the least of their concerns. Some of the things they’ll do will be magical, community-building, economically thrilling. Others may keep us up at night.”
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As Warren Buffett says, “The difference between successful people and very successful people is that very successful people say ‘no' to almost everything.”
As we’ve all experienced, it’s very easy to confuse being busy with being productive. How many tasks can you cut back on to give you a higher likelihood of doing what’s required in order to succeed?
“It's tempting to think that in order to be a valuable team player, you should say “yes” to every request and task that is asked of you. People who say yes to everything have a lot of speed. They're always doing stuff but never getting anything done. Why? Because they don't think in terms of velocity. Understanding the difference between speed and velocity will change how you work.”
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