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Shrinking Times
The average holding period for stocks is another one of the measures we regularly track to estimate market sentiment and speculation. The current low of around 5 months breaks the previous record of 6 months just prior to the financial crisis. As we always say, no one measure is predictive of the future, but this is another indicator that individual investors may be out over the skis in terms of trading risk.
This is a short piece from Paul Graham that is certainly worth your time. It is easy to be “busy” in the modern world, but your definition of busy is incredibly important if the intent is to live an impactful life:
It's hard to say at the time what will turn out to be your best work, but there's a whole class of tasks you can safely rule out: shaving, doing your laundry, cleaning the house, writing thank-you notes—anything that might be called an errand.
Good procrastination is avoiding errands to do real work.
Good in a sense, at least. The people who want you to do the errands won't think it's good. But you probably have to annoy them if you want to get anything done.
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Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater and a prolific poster on LinkedIn, recently published a piece on how “bubbly” the market is right now. It isn’t too technical and reiterates some of our own thoughts regarding the state of the market. There are pockets of extreme valuations, think emerging technologies, that are likely to result in a lot of pain. That said, the market on aggregate, though expensive, hasn’t reached the levels of some previous bubbles.
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A good and nuanced summary of the current market environment from Howard Marks. Some of this will be familiar, but it can be useful to take a step back and contemplate the state of the world.
Over the course of my career, there have been a handful of times when I felt the logic for calling a top (or bottom) was compelling and the probability of success was high. This isn’t one of them.
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Canada’s own Mark Carney, and one of the keynotes at our 8th annual Capitalize for Kids Investors Conference, speaks to his current role at Brookfield and his focus on impact investing. This is a good summary of a massive investment trend we are paying very close attention to.
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