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PATH DEPENDENCY
Markets have been off to an unsurprisingly rocky start to the year, due to a combination of the ongoing tragedy in Ukraine and central banks leaning further towards aggressive rate hikes. There are a tremendous number of variables in play here, and we have never pretended to have a crystal ball even in more benign times. Historically, markets have tended to favour the optimists following steep and sudden corrections outside of recessionary periods. Given the strength of labour markets it isn’t obvious that a recession is coming in the near term, though we are closely watching earnings, the yield curve, and other variables you would have seen us mention in this distribution over time.
For now, we encourage our readers to be conscious of their news consumption and to stay optimistic!
Joe Zidle: On the Road Again
We apologize for the amount of market-themed content in this edition – the times seem to call for it! This is an excellent summary of a number of market dynamics in play at the moment from Joe Zidle and the team at Blackstone.
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2022 Ten Breakthrough Technologies
An easy but worthwhile skim. May passwords finally come to an end!
One thing worth noting is the volume of entries related to healthcare. The pandemic accelerated an already clear trend in advances. It is worth pausing to reflect on how far technology has come in an incredibly short window of human history.
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This is Now The Worst Drawdown on Record for Global Fixed Income
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index has fallen 11% from its high in January 2021. That is the biggest decline in the history of the data set, and a shock for anyone who still places fixed income in the “safe” category as an asset class. We have long been proponents of alternatives as a replacement to fixed income as yields have steadily shrunk in recent years. That view is only enforced in the current inflationary environment.
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Howard Marks Memo: The Pendulum in International Affairs
A late addition to this month’s Insights that feels timely in the current environment. There is a lot to unpack here, but generally Howard explores the incentives that led the world to globalization, and how they may (or may not) reverse in the coming years.
In complex fields like economics and geopolitics, there are few easy decisions – just choices, many of them very difficult.
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