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Source: FRB, ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist (December 31st, 2023)
This one is a lesson in the value of second order thinking when it comes to media narratives. There have been an abundance of headlines surrounding the meteoric growth of private credit of late, but the data is almost universally presented without context. Yes, private credit has grown dramatically, but each year GDP grows and the size of debt markets overall increases. Nothing happens in isolation in this world. Since 2010, lending by banks has increased by $5.5 trillion, investment grade bond markets have grown by $5.5 trillion, and private credit assets have increased by….$800 billion.
What I Wish Someone Had Told Me | Sam Altman
Altman wrote an excellent piece over the holidays, no doubt partially inspired by his dramatic ouster and re-entry as CEO of Open AI. A quick read with a lot of insight.
Inspiration is perishable and life goes by fast. Inaction is a particularly insidious type of risk.
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Another interesting article in our (apparently monthly!) chronicle on the impact of AI. This one is important, as new tools for increasing efficiency are going to be key in fixing our ailing healthcare system.
In the 20 months after CHARTWatch’s launch in October, 2020, St. Michael’s general internal medicine unit experienced a 26-per-cent reduction in the relative risk of death among non-palliative patients compared with the same period in the four previous years.
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There is no more sure fire way to feel old than to start discussing the next generation, their particular name, and how their particular coming of age story has shaped them. No surprises here, anxiety and economic worries are making each successive generation’s challenges seem greater than the last. On a lighter note, this article is a great excuse to share Australia’s solution to the generational divide. Please watch it.
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A useful reminder on the value, and extreme limitations, of modeling practical phenomena. The effort to model economies, disease, and other extremely complex portions of our daily lives have been both useful and phenomenal failures. The modelling of risk in the US housing market back in 2008 springs to mind as the quintessential case study.
These kinds of failures, both in theory and practice, speak at least in part to the distance of the models from the phenomena they are trying to model. “Art is the lie that makes us realize the truth,” Picasso once said; the same could be said of mathematical modelling.
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