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MIND THE GAP
There are many ways to define “the market”. The growing dispersion between small caps and large caps, US stocks and the rest of the world, and AI vs. everything else, is creating a rare environment where there are both great opportunities and bubbly valuations at the same time. We don’t know where this leads in the short term, but we have a good idea where it ends. The portions of the market which are priced to perfection should certainly be sized appropriately.
Welcome to 2034
A highlight reel of the consensus view on how today’s key geopolitical issues will unfold. We don’t necessarily agree with everything here, but just a read through this article does highlight the sheer volume of potential global shifts we will see in the coming decade. You could probably say the same thing at most points in history, but the range of potential outcomes does certainly feel broader than in recent times.
Forgive us for the uncharacteristically pessimistic article!
More striking is the division between age groups, with the watershed at around fifty years old. Fifty-six percent of those over fifty forecast AI having good effects and 33 percent bad ones. The figures are almost exactly the reverse among those under fifty: Thirty-nine percent of younger respondents expect AI to have good effects over the next decade, while 52 percent expect bad effects.
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An excellent, and somewhat contrarian, piece by Toronto-based Whitehorse Liquidity Partners. It is a bit on the technical side with lots of data here on exit valuations vs. book values, both for long held positions and those that are sold quickly.
Private equity valuations are only put into question when they don’t follow public market declines. The topic is rarely broached when public markets recover more quickly than private equity. We believe it is a one-sided conversation.
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We all have competing priorities and will inevitably disappoint someone with the decisions we make. There is value in having the intellectual honesty to make those choices consciously, as it really is just the nature of the world.
You are free to do whatever you like. You have only to face the consequences
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A biography of Richard Feynman in podcast form. Feynman was a unique thinker, who’s defining characteristic was an incredibly deep curiosity in the areas he impacted most. He was also famously intolerant of “lousy ideas”.
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